Folks, I thought , I must share my views on properties in Mumbai with you. Today as we all know , property prices in Mumbai are going up and up and up. For a lot of people meeting me is like meeting a doctor at a party where all the forgotten itches are suddenly the topics of discussion.This therefore is the time I scratch that itch. I feel that the prices will keep going up in the short run, then will drop and then will rise again. Why do I say that ?
Symptom (1) I went to Kharghar the other day and decided on a whim to meet some of the builders there. I asked them about commercial properties there and was very shocked at the answer. (this was the answer given to me by 3 builders all of whom had properties next to each other being developed) The prices are Rs. 5500/- per Sq foot on average. (that’s not the shocking part) The sting comes in the tail where they say you have to make the full payment in 40 days. I therefore asked them when is the delivery and their answer was 15 months or so.
I whipped out my calculator and worked out that at 15% per annum, I was looking at another 22.5% so that means base price for this property would be Rs. 6737/50. Not a very appetizing proposition when I consider the last time we had this kind of dadagiri about paying upfront etc 80% of construction came to a halt soon after.
>>>> An incident from the past reminds me of when I was looking at investment in Mira Road years ago when there was a boom there. People I know bought properties for Rs. 800/- and sold them for Rs. 1000/- per sq foot a few days later. I therefore like any other hot blooded Mumbaiite went out to explore my fortune.
First shock, when I went to the main street of Mira Road, both sides of the road had nothing but estate agent signs as far as the eye could see. Every Pan shop, every medical shop, every small grocery store had a estate agency board outside it. A complete honour guard of yellow boards on both sides of the street.
He said sir , you're lucky to get even this, its on second sale. No more first sales left in all Mira Road. By the time the buildings which are starting from this road reach there in 3 years you will get double your money or more.
The next month or so prices went down to rock bottom and the building came to a halt but 10 years or so down, the property prices are back up and the building is now about Rs. 1800 or so.
Symptom (2): The banks are continuously raising the rates on their loans without too much fuss. I was with someone the other day who said he didn’t give a rats ass about the rising rates since he was on a fixed interest rate. I asked him to read the fine print in his loan document. I had already recd my shock when my so called fixed rate loan went from 8.75% to 10.5 % since I had taken a No documents required LAP.
Today’s newspaper had a very important article which says that the inter bank call rates have peaked at 12.5-13% . This of course means the rate will be farmed off to the customers since the banks are in the business of making money.
I have seen this once before in London , when the interest rates rose suddenly. This caused a cascade effect on the properties market since people simple stopped buying and therefore prices crashed. In fact a lot of my friends had gone and thrown their house keys at the banks doors since with rising interest rates the amount balance on their properties was more than the property was worth.
The silver lining:







